分析师如何看待美国通胀数据对比特币的影响
美国9月CPI数据于10月14日公布,道琼斯调查的经济学家预计同比上涨3.6%、环比上涨0.6%,核心CPI预计同比涨2.5%。Bitget Research首席分析师Ryan Lee认为,通胀高于预期可能引发又一轮清算,因比特币杠杆尚未完全出清。Moon Pursuit Capital创始人Utkarsh Ahuja指出,更高通胀会推高美债收益率和美元、抬升资本成本,令加密资产承压。
美国9月CPI数据于10月14日公布,道琼斯调查的经济学家预计同比上涨3.6%、环比上涨0.6%,核心CPI预计同比涨2.5%。Bitget Research首席分析师Ryan Lee认为,通胀高于预期可能引发又一轮清算,因比特币杠杆尚未完全出清。Moon Pursuit Capital创始人Utkarsh Ahuja指出,更高通胀会推高美债收益率和美元、抬升资本成本,令加密资产承压。
UC Berkeley 荣休教授、机器学习先驱 Michael I. Jordan 在接受 Libération 采访时,将 AI 末日论和超智能叙事称为科幻,并称 AI 公司要求监管是表演。
Cerebras Systems CEO Andrew Feldman 在 TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 上反驳 AI 末日论,称部分 AI 领袖"或许不该被允许公开讲话",认为行业忽视了 AI 的潜力,应多讲 AI 可能带来"孙辈将不再遇到死于癌症的人"这样的世界。
Cerebras CEO Andrew Feldman 在 TechCrunch Disrupt 2026 上表示,人人拥有家用 AI 设备的未来已不遥远,个人 AI 助手将本地运行、部分任务回到云端,并拥有安全边界、可访问信用卡替你购物。他以 Meta 的 Muse 和 Instinct 等消费级 AI 智能体为例,并称自己已用一组智能体管理日历、查询通话对象信息。
My AI agent doesn't live in a chat window. She lives on my studio wall 🌅 Pi 5 + laser projector + No screen, no app — just her, floating on the wall, changing state as she works. We talk out loud — she listens, and answers back in her own voice. @alexandr_wang @natfriedman — your @muse SDK escaped the gadget and moved in! Still a work in progress — new senses coming..
对 muse wonder full 的用心评测 显然还有很多需要改进的地方,但很高兴看到大家喜欢用这个模型!
Pros: - writing & "voice" - capabilities are on par with 6.1 sol (in non specialized things like computer use or 3d, they didn't RL on those this time) - orchestration Cons: - seriously wtf is this naming scheme you guys are making gpt-5.2-codex-high-fast seem sane - price/usage limits (tho they're working hard on fixing this) - can only use the good one (full) in muse code through the sub. no API
A retired NASA engineer who had worked on the Space Shuttle program for 25 years was hired by SpaceX at age 62. He described the first week as the most disorienting experience of his professional life. At NASA, a design change required 3 meetings, 2 committees, a review board, and 6 to 18 months of documentation. At SpaceX, his new supervisor said "if it works, build it. If it doesn't, change it by Friday." He sat at his desk after the first day and called his wife. He told her he felt like a man who had been swimming with ankle weights for 25 years and someone just cut them off. He could move. He could decide. He could build something in the morning and test it in the afternoon. The constraint that he had accepted as the nature of aerospace engineering turned out to be the nature of bureaucracy. Within 6 months he had contributed to more design iterations than he had completed in his last 5 years at NASA. Not because he was working harder. Because the time between having an idea and testing the idea collapsed from months to hours. The same brain. The same knowledge. A different operating system. He described a specific moment where he proposed a modification to a Raptor engine component. At NASA, the proposal would have entered a queue. At SpaceX, the modification was machined by the end of the day and tested by the following morning. He watched his idea become a physical object in 18 hours. At NASA, 18 hours would not have been enough to schedule the first meeting to discuss whether to schedule a meeting. He told an interviewer: "I didn't get smarter when I went to SpaceX. I got faster. The intelligence was always there. The system was in the way." The difference between SpaceX and NASA is not talent. NASA has extraordinary talent. The difference is the time between a thought and a test. SpaceX compresses it. NASA elongates it. The same engineer produces 10x more at SpaceX than at NASA because the bottleneck was never the engineer. It was the meetings about the meetings about the work.
Gemini 4 Argon has proven to be outright unusable for real code work in my codebases. It aggressively hallucinates about how systems work.
built this to help you check your hardware wallet for signs of tampering. upload a board photo. works with onekey, ledger and trezor. free, no signup, no photos saved. it can flag what looks wrong, but a clean result isn’t an all-clear. https://tampered.app
“AI transformation must begin from the top,” says Kai-Fu Lee, AI pioneer and CEO of https://01.AI. “The CEO must take the bull by the horn,” he added. Read more from Bloomberg’s New Economy Forum, held in New Delhi: https://bloom.bg/4zwWQYS
Dyna Robotics 联合创始人兼首席科学家 Jason Ma 在 Latent Space 播客中介绍了 Dyna-2 世界动作模型,该模型基于超过一百万小时人类视频预训练,可在约 45 分钟演示数据后学会新任务。
Anthropic 发布报告称,中国公司 Z.ai 于 8 月发布的开放模型 GLM-5.3 可被任何人自由下载和修改,构成重大网络攻击风险。这场争论的核心是前沿模型应像 GLM-5.3 一样开放,还是留在前沿实验室内部;Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang 主张美国发展更多开放模型,Anthropic 的 Dario Amodei 则主张更谨慎。
这个 👇 💯 (引用推文 @CryptoEnact:@cz_binance 花钱买 FUD,是最快的方式向外界宣告:你在产品、信任和用户体验上都竞争不过别人。)
@cz_binance Paying for FUD is the fastest way to advertise that you can’t compete on product, trust, or user experience
如果你是研究者,请考虑公开分享你的 RL 环境!你为某个实验搭建的东西,可能帮助整个领域向前推进。 我知道在美国前沿实验室分享正处在黑暗时期,但我相信这能对领域和世界产生巨大影响!
This is how open source should work. A closed lab publishes research, and within days the community turns it into training environments anyone can use. Early and rough, as Clem says, but the direction is lovely. #OpenSource #AI
超级智能必须被约束……今天,这是一个工程与治理挑战。而这并不新鲜。我们在飞机、汽车、核材料、食品安全、药品……以及其他所有领域都做到了。让我们行动起来!
https://x.com/i/article/2108928845969780736
MIT Technology Review 指出,AI 的拒绝能力已成为安全体系的核心承重墙,但这一机制本质上是概率性的,并不可靠。模型在训练中习得暴力与恶意知识,拒绝只是后置约束;已有用户试图用先进 AI 研发生物病原体和自主无人机蜂群。同时,拒绝的边界由 AI 公司秘密划定,政府也将介入,可能被用于压制合法言论。
AVEVA 首席技术官 Arti Garg 提出,工业 AI 正从预测分析转向基础模型、physical AI 与 agentic AI,但因其直接作用于物理系统,必须把安全与可靠性置于部署核心。AVEVA 的负责任 AI 框架强调安全、效率与人类监督,主张 AI 应增强而非取代关键决策中的人。Garg 还参与 IEEE 工作组,制定覆盖电力、能源、资源、水和碳的 AI 环境影响测量标准方法。
I don't recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography. The core new area of risk from this viewpoint is, unfortunately, ML-DSA / FHE / lattices. (and it's also another reason, along with quantum, why ECDSA might fall even faster than expected, hence the "fresh address" recommendation) So far most people have been in the mode of thinking "elliptic curves broken, hashes safe, lattices safe". But there is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math. The basic threat model is: factoring is something that naively takes 2^(n/2) time, but over decades smart people have found and optimized number field sieves, and degraded that to 2^O(n^(1/3)), which is why RSA keys and signatures need to be ~400 bytes (and not 64 bytes). What if there are skeletons in the closet like that, both for elliptic curves and lattices, that we are simply not smart enough to discover - but bots soon will be? This is a major part of the reason why for the past year ethereum's lean roadmap has been going in the "hash-only" direction: no lattices, no ML-DSA, no Falcon, no lattice-based commitments inside ZK proofs, etc. Signatures in lean ethereum are all hash-based, either WOTS or SPHINCS-. For signatures and proofs, we already know how to go hash-only. The bigger challenge is for *public-key encryption* - and this goes far beyond blockchains. Secure communication, anonymizing protocols, lots of things need public-key encryption. And unfortunately there are long-standing mathematical theorems showing why public-key encryption cannot be done with hashes alone. You have to have some kind of trapdoor object that has at least one form of usable "structure" - either group theory (incl. isogenies) or lattices or code-based or potentially in the future even more newfangled and spooky things (local mixing?). But for anything that has structure, you should assume that AI will make at least some progress in breaking that structure. Here, one reasonable inference is that if you want to make something plausibly long-term secure, multiply the key sizes by 10. To me that's a very plausible world and something not at all extreme to predict. If AI will bring us 50 years of math in 2 years, then that 50 years of math may very plausibly include a "naive factoring -> GNFS" level of improvement to our ability to break lattices. In that world, lattices will still exist, but they will have to be significantly bigger to guarantee the same level of safety. And at those new larger sizes, hash-based constructions will beat lattice-based constructions on concrete efficiency in every use case where hash-based constructions are possible at all. Theoretically, of course it's possible that hashes are broken too (eg. P = NP would imply that). But I think P = NP is very unlikely. And intuitively, it's much more likely that a mathematical object has exactly no exploitable structure (like hashes are intended to), than that a mathematical object has exactly ~3 forms of exploitable structure (for elliptic curves: associativity, Schoof, pairings) and not some secret fourth form of structure we have not yet discovered that greatly degrades its security (for elliptic curves, ECDLP and pairing security). Similar for LWE, SVP, RLWE and the zoo of lattice problems. For this reason, we do not yet see any reason to worry and start padding the byte size of hashes (if we start to worry more, we would pad the round count first before doing anything to the byte size). Concrete TLDR, my own personal views: * Hash-based > lattice-based, in those situations where hash-based is possible at all * For anything lattice-based, be much more paranoid on param sizes. Remember that blockchains are only a small portion of the cryptography story; this point goes far beyond blockchains and applies to eg. access to websites, secure messaging, Tor / VPNs ... * For privacy protocols, strongly favor NOT putting encrypted notes onchain. Instead, send them offchain through some third-party mechanism. * If it's not difficult for you, keeping your funds in addresses which have not yet been used to make a transaction is a good idea. If it's easy for you, do it. **But be careful about migrations; I personally have lost more money in botched migrations than I have lost in all hacks combined**. * For multisig wallets, doing confirmations offchain is better than onchain, because this way the signatures of signer wallets do not get exposed to the public, so if ECDSA falls to AI much faster than expected, at least the multisig "gracefully degrades" to a 1-of-1 where the 1 is whoever was gathering the signatures - a much better place to be than "anyone can take the money" https://firefly.social/post/x/2107837081313505768
Microsoft 合伙人研究经理 Jennifer Neville 在 Microsoft Research Podcast 中讨论评测如何推动 AI 系统突破传统 benchmark 的性能边界,以及模型在超出常规评测时出现的"意外失败"。她结合自身从数学、物理、认知科学转向计算机科学的经历,分享了使用当前 AI 系统的实用建议,并强调当结果偏离预期时应仔细审视数据。
诺贝尔经济学奖得主 Daron Acemoglu 在微软 AI 推出的新杂志 The Humanist Review 创刊号中预测,未来十年 AI 只会替代人类约 5% 的工作。
Import AI 475 讨论了 AI 群体(swarm)扩展:4 个智能体的群体完成任务所需 token 总量约为单智能体的两倍,但每个智能体只需一半 token,并行运行理论上可将耗时减半。
One step closer to 4-8x faster Ethereum finality! It took some time and lots of tokens, but we now have a formally verified proposal for a decoupled consensus protocol in I* (a future Ethereum upgrade)! Not yet a full spec (up next), but it includes all the key consensus-relevant details to become one. Since Ethereum aspires to be live without most of the stake online, the protocol involves many more components than a normal BFT protocol, and its correctness involves much more than standard safety and liveness. Those nuanced properties are now verified! What's more, I came away convinced that all protocol design will involve AI-assisted Formal Verification in the future, both for correctness and iteration speed. The work wasn't limited to just: Design the protocol -> Formally verify it Instead, the loop became more like: Design -> Formal Model -> Find exactly what breaks and why -> Redesign it. For a fairly complicated protocol like this one, I think having the Lean model be part of the design loop played a big role in accelerating the process. A future with agents paired with formal models is a superpower for Ethereum development, because they can then use those models to find exactly where an argument breaks down, formalize counterexamples, test proposed fixes, iterate on the protocol. Many details that would slip under the radar when asking agents (and indeed, humans) can now be specified exactly and checked by the Lean kernel. This then forces agents to be more precise and lets them make verifiable progress on their own. It's been incredible to see this play out, seeing agents find gaps and propose protocol changes to fix them. In other words, autoresearch can speed up protocol design, formal verification is here to stay, and Ethereum Finality will get faster.
GitHub Copilot 提出 canvas 概念,即运行在 GitHub Copilot app 内、无浏览器外壳的全栈应用,可与 agent 双向通信并调用第三方 API、在本地执行代码。官方认为 chat 只是通用兜底方案,用户明确任务时更该让 agent 构建可复用工具,而非把 agent 本身当工具,例如用 canvas 管理 Winget 包或直接操作 SQLite 数据库。
RAND 发布报告提出美国应以"自由行动"战略应对通往超级智能的不确定路径,核心是保留选项而非锁定单一方案,并归纳了共存、拒止、加速三大类共七种原型策略及五项关键不确定性。研究人员还培育出脑内含有部分人脑组织的小鼠,用于相关实验。
no way it's yet another webpage: https://transformative-ai.eu fits right next to https://accelerate-europe.org/ https://aichampions.eu/ https://euro-stack.eu/ https://openeurollm.eu/ https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/european-approach-artificial-intelligence https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/eu-launches-investai-initiative-mobilise-eu200-billion-investment-artificial-intelligence https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/commission-launches-resource-ai-science-europe